The United States is one of the most important economies, determining the direction of global markets. Therefore, US economic outlook for Q4 2025 We Expectations for the first quarter of 2026, is of critical importance to both international investors and those following the market from Turkey.
US Economy in the Fourth Quarter of 2025
As 2025 draws to a close, in the American economy moderate growth is projected. Various research institutions, during this period:
- Gross domestic product on an annual basis in the range of %1.5 – %1.7 to watch,
- The unemployment rate %4,4 – %4,5 will show stability in its band,
- With inflation, around %3 It expects to continue.
Although the US Central Bank (Fed) has not taken a sudden easing step in its interest rate policy, by the end of the year interest rate cut signals can start giving more strongly.
Expected Developments in the First Quarter of 2026
the US economy in the first quarter of the new year A slight recovery is expected to show. Especially for its planned launch at the beginning of 2026, comprehensive tax refund The application can increase consumer spending. While this supports growth in the short term, it could create upward pressure on inflation again.
Current expectations:
- Growth rate %1,6 at levels,
- Unemployment %4,5 around it,
- Consumption-driven vitality could slow down the Fed's interest rate cuts.
Factors Affecting the US Economy
Key factors that will determine the direction of the American economy during the transition from the fourth quarter of 2025 to 2026:
- Trade policies and customs tariffs: New taxes to be applied, especially in trade with China and Europe, could limit growth.
- Investor confidence Foreign capital inflows reached record levels in the first half of 2025. The continuation of this trend will increase the resilience of US markets.
- The Fed's independence: The extent to which the Central Bank can resist political pressures will directly affect the credibility of monetary policy.
General Expectation
Unless something extraordinary happens, The US economy will close the year with a cautious slowdown in the fourth quarter of 2025., while the first quarter of 2026 is expected to see a modest recovery driven by consumption. Growth is projected to remain low but positive, with unemployment stabilizing around 1.3–1.45 percent and inflationary pressures persisting.
